A critical review of lumped and conceptual rainfall-runoff models: performance, hybridization, uncertainty, and data integration
Document Type
Article
Department
Arusha Climate and Environmental Research Centre
Abstract
Rainfall-runoff modelling remains a cornerstone of hydrological science and practice, yet the field is undergoing rapid methodological shifts. This systematic review synthesizes recent developments in lumped and conceptual rainfall-runoff models, with an emphasis on performance across different climate regimes, calibration, optimization, validation, uncertainty treatment, and the rise of hybrid approaches. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol, fifty studies published between 2020, and April 2025 were reviewed. The results indicate the persistent prevalence of lumped models, with Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier (GR4J), Australia Water Balance Model (AWBM), and Tank model being the most widely applied models, particularly in Iran and the United States of America. Among 21 countries and 12 climate groups, Semi-arid and temperate oceanic basins are the most represented. Hybrid models accounted for 34% of studies, underscoring their growing trend. Calibration remains varied, with manual approaches still prevalent, while heuristic/metaheuristic methods and Bayesian techniques are increasingly employed. Validation practices are weak, with 72% of studies relying solely on split-sample tests and fewer than 10% adopting cross-basin or spatio-temporal protocols. Uncertainty assessment is dominated by parameter analysis, while structural and input-related uncertainties remain underexplored. The findings reveal a methodological imbalance: while hybridization and advanced calibration are progressing, validation and uncertainty treatment lag significantly. Integrated frameworks that combine interpretability, predictive performance, and robust uncertainty are necessary to enhance hydrological modelling in response to climate and land-use change.
Publication (Name of Journal)
Acta Geophys
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-026-01916-2
Recommended Citation
Salau, R. A.,
Adelodun, B.,
Adeyi, Q.,
Akinsoji, A. H.,
Choi, K. S.
(2026). A critical review of lumped and conceptual rainfall-runoff models: performance, hybridization, uncertainty, and data integration. Acta Geophys, 74.
Available at:
https://ecommons.aku.edu/acer/125