Thirty-year trends of triple burden of disease in the adult population of Pakistan

Document Type



Emergency Medicine; Community Health Sciences; School of Nursing and Midwifery, Pakistan


Background: The triple burden of disease, i.e. communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases and injuries, has significantly affected the healthcare system of Pakistan during the last three decades. Therefore, this study aims to determine and analyse the 30-year disease burden trends through prevalence, death rates and percentages.
Methods: The data for the last three decades, i.e. 1990 to 2019, was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease for Pakistan. Percentage change in prevalence and deaths over 30 years was calculated. Poisson regression analysis was performed to evaluate the triple disease burden trends and the incidence rate ratio.
Results: A relative decrease of 23.4% was noted in the prevalence rate of communicable diseases except for human immunodeficiency virus and dengue fever. A relative increase of 1.4% was noted in the prevalence rate of non-communicable diseases. A relative increase of 56.1% was recorded in the prevalence rate of injuries. The prevalence rate ratios of communicable diseases significantly decreased to 0.9796 [95% CI: 0.9887-0.9905], but the prevalence rate of injury increased to 1.0094 [95% CI: 1.0073-1.01145], respectively.
Conclusion: Pakistan must take the next steps and develop strategies to decrease this burden and mortality rates in the population to create better outcomes and therefore help the healthcare system overall.


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Publication (Name of Journal)

Journal of Public Health