Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children under the age of five years with severe malarial anaemia in Africa: a modelling analysis
Paediatrics and Child Health (East Africa)
Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0-5 year-old children after hospitalised SMA. We fitted the model to a multicentre clinical PDMC trial using Bayesian methods. We then modelled the potential impact of PDMC across malaria-endemic African countries. In the 19 highest-burden countries, we estimate that only 2-5 children need to be given PDMC to prevent one hospitalised malaria episode, and less than 100 to prevent one death. If all hospitalised SMA cases access PDMC, 37,000 (range 16,000-84,000) malariaassociated readmissions could be prevented annually, depending on access to hospital care. We estimate that recurrent SMA post-discharge constitutes 18-29% of all SMA episodes in higher transmission settings.
Publication ( Name of Journal)
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Gondwe, T. N.,
Kuhl, M. J.,
(2022). Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children under the age of five years with severe malarial anaemia in Africa: a modelling analysis. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.
Available at: https://ecommons.aku.edu/eastafrica_fhs_mc_paediatr_child_health/283
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